The state of the climate in the Pacific 2021
The world is in an unprecedented climate crisis, caused by human-made greenhouse gas emissions. The environmental impacts of burning coal, oil, and gas are well documented. They include more intense extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, bushfires and cyclones, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, biodiversity loss, more extreme heat, and the resulting damage to the natural and built systems required to sustain all life on our planet.
The Pacific region, and the Pacific island communities who depend on it for their livelihoods and culture, are facing some of the most severe climate impacts anywhere on earth. As inhabitants of predominantly low-lying islands, the people of the Pacific have seen rising sea levels and higher king tides flood coastal communities, eroding coastlines, raising water table salinity, and reducing crop yields and supplies of freshwater. Some communities have been forced to relocate due to rising sea levels, such as the Fijian village of Vunidogoloa, whose inhabitants had to move 2km inland in 2014. A further 830 vulnerable communities are listed for relocation in Fiji alone.
Pacific Islands People are deeply connected to their ancestral lands that have shaped their cultural heritage and ways of sustainable living for generations. The increasing displacement of these coastal communities from their homes, villages and communities is threatening their identities, cultural practices and relationships with land, nature and their social environment.
Heating oceans have resulted in more intense tropical hurricanes, devastating low-lying communities most severely. In March 2015, Cyclone Pam affected nearly half of Vanuatu’s population and destroyed 95 per cent of crops in affected areas. A year later, Cyclone Winston, the strongest cyclone to make landfall in the southern hemisphere, caused $470 million worth of damage to Fiji, or around 10 per cent of that nation’s GDP. In April 2020, Cyclone Harold devastated Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga.
Despite being forced to bear the brunt of the harm caused by global heating, Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are among the nations of the world least responsible for creating the climate crisis. The highest 15 emitting nations together produce 72.21 per cent of global emissions, while Pacific Island Countries (14) produce just 0.23 per cent.
More critically, the current climate action plans of those responsible for this situation are grossly insufficient. Industrialised countries in the Global North are responsible for the vast majority of historic global emissions. These wealthy and powerful nations have developed their economies through the extraction and exploitation of labour and natural resources from the Global South or current day ‘developing’ countries. The Global South is owed a ‘climate debt’ for the harm caused by these rich nations. Despite this, none of the top 15 greenhouse gas emitters have pledged emissions reductions, via their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), that are consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degree heating limit or with the more lenient 2 degree Copenhagen limit, with the exception of India’s 2 degree compatible goal.
The rich nations of the world are thereby deliberately avoiding their historical responsibility of making reparations to those who are suffering, and will continue to suffer, the worst impacts of the climate crisis. In the case of Australia, the world’s 15th largest emitter, its failure to increase its emissions reduction goals in its updated 2020 NDC is in conflict with the intentions of the Paris Agreement, which requires signatory states to increase their emissions reduction ambition over time.
‘Critically insufficient’ NDCs, which would lock in over 4 degrees of heating if extrapolated across all nations, comprise 5.37 per cent per cent of annual global emissions, a substantial improvement from the 19.09 per cent in the first edition of this report in 2020. This is overwhelmingly due to the USA’s substantially stronger NDC, which sees it move out of the Critically Insufficient category and into the Insufficient one.
‘Highly insufficient’ NDCs, which would lock in between 3 and 4 degrees of heating if extrapolated across all nations, comprise a further 33.10 per cent of annual global emissions, or slightly more than 2020’s 32.87 per cent. ‘Insufficient’ NDCs, which would lead to between 2 and 3 degrees of heating if extrapolated across all nations, comprise a further 21.46 per cent of annual global emissions, significantly more than 2020’s 13.22 per cent. Countries with NDCs that lock in at least 2 degrees of heating are therefore responsible for 66.77 per cent of annual global emissions, a slight increase on 2020’s figure of 65.18 per cent.
Unless the world’s top emitters quickly move to rectify the inherent injustice in this situation, the outlook for the Pacific is dire. The world in 2021 is 1.1 degrees celsius hotter than the pre-industrialisation average and the extreme impacts of a 1.1 degree rise in temperature are already apparent across the planet. If all current pledges to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by the world’s nations are achieved, the world is still projected to heat by a median estimate of 2.4 degrees by 2100, with a possible range of 1.9 to 3.0 degrees celsius. This would result in alarming extinction of numerous species, a rise in conflict, and the displacement of millions of vulnerable peoples.
As the IPCC’s landmark research has recently demonstrated, global heating of even 1.5 or 2 degrees would be catastrophic for Pacific Island Countries.1 As predominantly low-lying geographies, PICs are especially vulnerable to even small rises in sea level, including the associated loss of freshwater resources. They are highly reliant on healthy marine ecosystems and fisheries for food and economic prosperity, both of which would be severely degraded. Many PICs are also situated at low latitudes, where loss of coastal resources and decline of fisheries and aquaculture is predicted to be especially severe. As small island developing states, PICs will experience some of the highest water stress of any nations. They will also experience the largest projected falls in economic growth globally. Finally, they are among some of the most vulnerable nations to cyclones, which are projected to increase with additional heating.
Despite this, the Pacific story is one of resilience amid crisis. The solutions are being found in both age-old traditions and modern technology, and give cause for hope if we act in time. The nations of the world therefore need to rapidly reduce their emissions and go well beyond their current commitments, with the most-polluting countries, such as China, the USA and Australia leading the way. Australia, as a nation with significant interests in the Pacific and which claims a special friendship with Pacific Island Countries, has a particular responsibility to lead in this arena, if it is to meet its obligations to the communities of the Pacific, and to the world as a whole.
