Nations in the Asia Pacific region are among the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world; Pacific island countries (PICs) are collectively responsible for only 0.23% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Australia is the 15th largest emitter globally, responsible for 1.27% of CO2 emissions despite homing just 0.3% of the world’s population. According to 2019 research by the Australia Institute, Australia’s per capita emissions are the highest in the OECD “and globally behind only smaller petrostates like Qatar”. Moreover, these figures only account for domestic emissions. The CO2 potential of Australian fossil fuel exports is “more than twice as much as the greenhouse gas emissions Australia emits domestically”. When Australia’s domestic emissions and the CO2 potential from its fossil fuel exports are combined, the country ranks as the world’s 5th highest CO2 emitter. Australia therefore bears substantial responsibility for climate impacts felt in the Pacific islands.

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found that limiting global warming to at least 1.5 degrees is necessary for the survival and security of the Pacific islands. In October 2021, Greenpeace UK’s investigative arm Unearthed revealed that the Australian government has tried to lobby the IPCC to change the conclusions of its report prior to its release, including objecting to uncontroversial statements that retiring old coal plants and halting the construction of new ones is needed to eliminate CO2 emissions.

Despite Australia’s attempts at interference, the IPCC has already detailed the climate threats facing the Pacific islands if global warming is not limited to at least 1.5 degrees. The most pressing climate impacts for Pacific island states are sea level rise and the growing intensity of tropical cyclones. Sea level rise in the Pacific has many knock-on effects including flooding, permanent inundation leading to saltwater intrusion in agricultural land and aquifers, erosion and pressure on ecosystems. IPCC scientists have stated with high confidence that by 2050 the frequency of extreme water-level events – such as those seen during king high tides – is expected to double. The interactions between sea level rise and wave dynamics over reefs “will lead to annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid 21st century”, according to leading climate scientists. Inundation of some Pacific island countries can be partially avoided by limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, as compared to 2 degrees where 60,000 people will lose their homes by 2150.

Climate hazards will lead to the loss of lives, livelihoods, property, place, culture and identity in the Pacific islands. Human wellbeing in the Pacific islands is greatly endangered by climate change, including through loss of lives in natural disasters, threats to food security, higher malnutrition, increase in non-communicable diseases and impacts on the livelihoods of farmers and fisherfolk due to declining fish stock and salt water inundation on agricultural lands. Climate-induced migration, as a result of these climate hazards, may become the only option for Pacific communities unless global warming is kept to a maximum of 1.5 degrees. Migration itself will cause loss of identity and culture for Pacific communities who have strong spiritual and functional connections to land. The psychosocial impacts of climate-induced migration will be severe and are difficult to comprehend.

According to Climate Analytics’ Climate Action Tracker research, Australia’s 2030 domestic emissions reduction target of 26-28% from 2005 levels, if extrapolated out to all nations, is consistent with between 3 and 4 degrees of global warming. Under Australia’s current climate policies, “emissions will continue to rise and are consistent with more than 3 degrees of warming”.

The Hon. Anote Tong, President of Kiribati (2003-2016), told Greenpeace Australia Pacific that 3 degrees of global warming would devastate the 33 atoll islands of Kiribati. Already Kiribati is experiencing the impacts of climate change. Anote Tong explained:

Pacific island leaders have long requested that Australia recognise its responsibility for climate change as a major emitter, and strengthen its emissions reduction targets accordingly. The threat of climate change to the Pacific islands has been raised at the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meetings since 1988. In 1997, the Australian government under John Howard forced members of the Pacific Islands Forum (then the South Pacific Forum) to remove its concern about climate change risks and its support for emissions reduction measures from the Forum’s official communiqué. This coercive and stubborn behaviour from Australia has continued since 1997. In the last 6 years, since 2015, there have been numerous reports of the Australian government diluting the Forum’s official communiqué and ignoring the impassioned requests of Forum members for Australia to curb its greenhouse gas emissions and transition away from fossil fuels.

At regional negotiations, most notably the annual Pacific Islands Forum, the Australian government has repeatedly ignored the calls of Pacific island leaders to strengthen its climate policies and increase the ambition of its emissions reduction targets. The Australian government has used its power to stymie regional climate action and water down the Forum’s official communiqué, with reports from Pacific island leaders – including those interviewed by Greenpeace Australia Pacific – suggesting that the Australian government uses its aid money to the Pacific as a bargaining chip to buy the silence of Pacific island leaders on climate change.

At the 2018 Forum hosted by Nauru, the Australian government attempted to wield its power in climate negotiations. At this Forum, Pacific island leaders negotiated the terms of the Boe Declaration on Regional Security. The first clause of the declaration is that Forum Members “reaffirm that climate change remains the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of the peoples of the Pacific and our commitment to the implementation of the Paris Agreement”. The Hon. Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (2017 – 2020), was present at the Pacific Islands Forum that year. In an interview with Greenpeace Australia Pacific, Regenvanu stated that “Australia did not like that wording at all”.

The following year, at the Pacific Islands Forum in 2019, again Australia acted with determination to dilute the Forum’s official communiqué on climate change – in particular the ‘Kainaki II Declaration for Urgent Climate Action Now’. Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, and then-Minister for International Development and the Pacific, Alex Hawke, drew several red lines during negotiations. These red lines included removing any mention in the communiqué of ending coal production, phasing out fossil fuel subsidies or setting a clear plan for net-zero emissions by 2050 through more ambitious 2030 targets.

Indeed, the final text of the ‘Kainaki II Declaration for Urgent Climate Action Now’ states that emissions reduction strategies “may include” net zero carbon by 2050 commitments, suggesting that there are other ways to reduce emissions. This is presumably a reference to the use of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects, which are widely promoted by the Morrison government but have repeatedly underperformed. The biggest CCS project in the world (Chevron’s Gorgon Gas Plant in Western Australia) led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. It is fair to say that an optional net-zero by 2050 target, with no commitment to stronger 2030 emission reduction targets, does not meet the requirements of ‘urgent climate action now’; however, the Pacific islands could not get Australia’s support thereby preventing more ambitious regional commitments.

Fiji’s Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama took to Twitter to express his disappointment with Australia’s influence on the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum negotiations, tweeting that “watered-down climate language has real consequences – like water-logged homes, schools, communities and ancestral burial grounds”. The Australian government’s refusal to budge on climate change mitigation meant that the meeting lasted close to 12 hours, leading to several cancelled sessions and press conferences, and almost broke down entirely on two occasions. Ralph Regenvanu stated that, at one point, the impasse was only resolved by Morrison agreeing to declare a climate crisis for the Pacific island countries but not the Pacific region which includes Australia. Meanwhile, the deadly 2019-2020 Australian bushfire season was already underway – starting in June, much earlier than usual bushfire seasons, because of hotter and drier conditions, exacerbated by climate change.

The Australian government’s use of aid funding as a bargaining chip in negotiations, discussed in greater detail in 02: Problems and Pitfalls of Australian Climate Aid, came under the spotlight at the 2019 Forum. Then-Prime Minister of Tuvalu, Enele Sopoaga, who hosted the Forum in 2019, stated that Australia’s pledge of $500 million (AUD) in climate aid felt like Pacific island leaders were being asked to “take the money and shut up.” Sopoaga told Australia,

Sopoaga added, in an interview with SBS, that “putting this money on the table – $500 million – and then expecting Pacific island countries like Tuvalu to say ‘OK, we’ll stop talking about climate change’ is not on – it’s completely irresponsible”. Ralph Regenvanu who also attended the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum as then-Minister of Foreign Affairs of Vanuatu confirmed this, stating:

This was not the first time that Pacific island leaders have raised the issue of Australia hoping to exchange aid money for concessions on climate. Australia also behaved this way in 2015, in the lead up to the Conference of the Parties meeting in Paris (COP21).

The 2015 Pacific Islands Forum, held 8-10 September at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, took place only 3 months prior to COP21 in Paris (where the landmark Paris Agreement was reached). At the Pacific Islands Forum, Australia was asked to strengthen its climate ambition to support a 1.5 degree global warming limit. President of Kiribati at the time, Anote Tong, told Tony Abbott: “we cannot negotiate this, no matter how much aid. We cannot be bought on this one because it’s about the future”. When asked about his comments at the 2015 Forum, Anote Tong told Greenpeace Australia Pacific:

At the 2015 Forum meeting, Pacific islands members also discussed kicking out Australia and New Zealand (under the National Party Government) from the Forum because they were obstructing much-needed consensus to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. According to Anote Tong:

The Australian government’s stubbornness on a 1.5 degree limit continued as COP21 in Paris drew closer, even after the Liberal Party’s leadership spill and change of Prime Minister from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull. At the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Malta on 27-29 November 2015, only two weeks before COP21 in Paris, the new Turnbull Government again refused to support a 1.5 degree limit in global warming. Anote Tong was there and told Greenpeace Australia Pacific,

Then-Australian Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, disputes President Tong’s version of events.

During this time the High Ambition Coalition (HAC) – convened by Pacific island country the Marshall Islands – had been busy securing the majority support of UN members to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. By the time Julie Bishop, Australia’s then-Deputy Prime Minister, attended the COP, the High Ambition Coalition had gained enough momentum without Australia’s support. Only at this point, amidst the Paris negotiations and realising the huge weight of numbers behind the HAC, did the Australian government belatedly agree to a limit of well below 2 degrees of global warming and preferably below 1.5 degrees.

Pacific island countries have successfully banded together to achieve climate action in multilateral forums including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) annual Conference of the Parties. As Dr. Wesley Morgan, Research Fellow at Griffith University puts it, “the Pacific has developed unique norms of regional cooperation, regional diplomacy and acting together as a bloc”. Dr. Joanne Wallis, Professor of International Security at the University of Adelaide, likewise explains that “Pacific island states are able to exercise an amazing amount of agency, considering what International Relations Theory would predict given their size, particularly on climate”. Marshall Islands Foreign Minister Tony de Brum was instrumental in forming the High Ambition Coalition, which successfully lobbied for the 1.5 degree temperature limit to be included in the Paris Agreement. The ‘loss and damage’ clause in Article 8 of the Paris Agreement would also not have been incorporated without the Pacific islands’ efforts. Vanuatu was the first country to call for loss and damage under the UNFCCC in the early 1990s, and is now working to get an International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion on the duty of care each country owes to present and future generations to protect them from the adverse effects of climate change.

However, despite the agency of Pacific island countries and their undeniable climate achievements when they cooperate as a bloc, these island nations remain vulnerable to the climate policies and geopolitical ambitions of wealthier and more powerful nations. As Wallis points out, “overlaying on the Pacific’s climate leadership, there is the role of external powers in the region and this can be quite divisive”. As a transnational problem, tackling climate change requires international action. The Pacific island countries are world-leading voices in the climate movement, but their security against the threat of climate change remains in the hands of more powerful states, including Australia.

Australia has been able to continually ignore and even coerce Pacific island countries on the issue of climate change because it is uniquely powerful in the Pacific region – economically, militarily and in its soft power. Australia is the largest and wealthiest member of the Pacific Islands Forum, and the largest aid donor to Pacific island countries by a wide margin – giving approximately six times more in annual aid than China. Furthermore, Australia is recognised by the United States as jointly responsible for ensuring military security in the region, and the two countries share the same anxieties about a ‘rising China’ even though Pacific island leaders themselves have not expressed the same level of concern about Chinese influence. The Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) strategic defence alliance announced on 15 September 2021 is recent evidence of this security arrangement in the Pacific, but such an arrangement dates back much further to the 1951 Radford-Collins naval agreement.

Ralph Regenvanu explains that Pacific island countries have little power in negotiations with Australia, and so they struggle to stand up to Australia on climate change. While Australia can use aid funding and labour mobility arrangements as bargaining chips, “we’ve got very little we can go back with, partly because the Pacific hasn’t been able to extricate itself from Australia and New Zealand”. He added,

Using its power to ignore and coerce, the Australian government does not engage the Pacific islands as equals, despite them being sovereign nations. Anote Tong told Greenpeace Australia Pacific that he hopes Australia will engage respectfully with the Pacific islands:

Anote Tong’s mention of a Pacific ‘family’ is a direct reference to rhetoric adopted by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in recent years. At two separate addresses in 2019, Morrison used Pacific languages to describe Australia as part of the Pacific family, referring to “our Vuvale, our wantok, our Whanau”.

Morrison has been at pains to point out that within families there are disagreements; however, core disagreements over the region’s primary security threat are already undermining the strength of regional relations. When Australia signed its nuclear-powered submarine deal with the US and UK on 15 September 2021- which it justifies as a necessary military capability against the threat of China – Pacific island countries were quick to express their concern and point out that they had not been consulted prior to the announcement of the deal. Political and community leaders in the Pacific, including the current President of Kiribati, Taneti Maamuu, reiterated that climate change is their core security concern and not China’s growing power. This is a widely held view among Pacific island leaders who are willing to engage in bilateral relations with Australia, the US and China. As then-Prime Minister of Samoa Tuilaepa Malielegaoi stated in 2019, “[Australia’s] friends are our friends but their enemies are not our enemies”.

Given the submarines are to be sailed in the Pacific, a region that has historically suffered the worst effects of nuclear testing, the lack of consultation was not received well. The projected cost of over $90 billion also left the Pacific reeling. Ralph Regenvanu states that, with that amount of money the “entire Pacific could have cyclone proof infrastructure that lasts, which is what we want” – protection against a more relevant and tangible threat in a region that has experienced six category 5 tropical cyclones since 2015.

Australia’s relations in the Pacific have been undermined by its continued refusal to listen to Pacific island countries when they say climate change is the biggest security threat facing the region.

The Australian government’s rhetoric of the Pacific ‘family’ means little when it refuses to do its part in mitigating climate change. Region experts told Greenpeace Australia Pacific that Australia is undermining good relations with Pacific islands because of its stubborn refusal to tackle climate change, an existential threat that risks the security and survival of Pacific peoples. To restore relations in the Pacific, Australia must respect Pacific island countries and act on the primary security threat they have repeatedly identified and sought more ambitious action on: climate change. As Hilda Heine, President of the Marshall Islands, told a packed lecture theatre at the Australian National University in 2017:

With Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison unlikely to increase the ambition of Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction targets ahead of the UN Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow this year, Pacific island countries are once again let down by the country that calls itself their ‘big brother’ yet is willing to jeopardise their survival.